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Webinar Recap: Is Enterprise Software the Next Phase of AI Value Creation?

Artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly evolved since the public release of ChatGPT in late 2022, transitioning from experimental demonstrations to meaningful economic application. In a recent webinar, our Chief Investment Officer Eric Gerster hosted a discussion with Ashley MacNeill and Brian Loring of Vista Equity Partners to examine the implications of AI for public markets, private software companies, and the broader evolution of enterprise software.

For those unable to attend the live session, the full audio replay is available below. You may also follow along by reading the complete transcript.

So what were the biggest takeaways? The conversation centered on a powerful framework for understanding where we are in the AI cycle and why software’s moment may be closer than many investors think.

Phases of the AI Value Cycle

MacNeill described AI adoption as unfolding in three distinct waves. The first wave centers on hardware infrastructure, particularly semiconductors that power AI systems. The second wave involves hyperscalers and AI enablers, where significant early market value has concentrated. The third and emerging wave focuses on enterprise software providers embedding AI into core business workflows. In this phase, systems transition from tracking activities to performing intelligent, decision-support functions.

According to MacNeill, public markets may be underestimating this third phase. Software valuations have faced pressure largely due to uncertainty and limited measurable evidence of durable returns on AI-enabled products. However, she suggested that 2026 may represent a pivotal year in which enterprise adoption becomes more visible in financial results and operational data.

Structural Advantages of Incumbent Software Providers

A significant portion of the discussion addressed concerns that AI-native startups may displace traditional enterprise software providers. MacNeill outlined three structural advantages that incumbents maintain.

First, incumbency creates a competitive moat. Enterprise sales cycles are lengthy, system integrations are complex, and many platforms contain decades of embedded workflows and proprietary data. Replacing these systems is neither simple nor immediate.

Second, trust and determinism remain critical. AI systems are probabilistic by design, meaning outputs are generated based on likelihood rather than fixed rules. Many enterprise functions, including payroll processing and regulatory compliance, require deterministic and rules-based execution. This requirement reinforces the need for established governance frameworks within trusted software platforms.

Third, AI expands total addressable market (TAM) rather than compressing it. As AI agents assume task-level responsibilities, enterprise software increasingly serves as the orchestration and governance layer that manages these agents. In practical terms, if AI functions as the workforce, enterprise software functions as the management infrastructure.

The Emergence of Agentic AI

Loring expanded the discussion by outlining the progression from machine learning (pattern recognition) to generative AI (content creation through prompts) and now to agentic AI. Agentic AI refers to tools capable of executing tasks end-to-end with minimal human instruction.

This evolution represents a meaningful shift. Historically, software improved human productivity. With agentic AI, software may directly perform work on behalf of users. However, Loring emphasized the limitation of hallucinations, defined as AI-generated outputs that appear accurate but are factually incorrect. Because enterprise systems require reliability and compliance, guardrails and governance structures remain essential for safe deployment.

Barriers to Adoption

When evaluating potential obstacles, Loring characterized the risk as one of delay rather than derailment. Two primary friction points were identified: trust and organizational culture.

Enterprises require secure, compliant, and reliable outputs before scaling AI into mission-critical operations. Simultaneously, cultural resistance may present a greater challenge. Organizations must overcome inertia, address concerns regarding job displacement, and redesign workflows to integrate AI capabilities effectively.

Evidence of Value Creation

Despite near-term uncertainty, AI is already generating measurable value within software companies. Vista Equity Partners has observed two primary forms of impact.

First, internal productivity gains are emerging across engineering, customer support, and go-to-market functions. AI-assisted coding tools, automation in customer service environments, and pipeline generation technologies are contributing to operational efficiency. The progression has been deliberate: 2024 emphasized experimentation, 2025 focused on standardization and measurable targets, and 2026 is expected to translate these efficiencies into sustained margin expansion.

Second, companies are developing new revenue streams through agent-enabled products. Loring cited LogicMonitor as an example of a company deploying AI agents to assist IT teams in resolving incidents more efficiently. These capabilities have contributed to both customer cost savings and increased adoption of agent-based offerings.

Shifting Pricing Models

Another significant development involves pricing transformation. Enterprise software has traditionally relied on seat-based pricing models that charge per employee license. Increasingly, vendors may transition toward outcome-based pricing structures in which compensation aligns with measurable value creation.

This transition will require time. Vendors must demonstrate predictable outcomes, and customers must gain confidence in shared-value arrangements. If successfully implemented, outcome-based pricing could create mutually beneficial economic structures. The uncertainty surrounding the pace and execution of this shift contributes to volatility in public software markets.

Practical Implications for Individuals

For individuals navigating the AI transition, Loring offered pragmatic guidance. Continuous experimentation with AI tools enhances familiarity and competence. Additionally, individuals can leverage AI systems directly by asking them how best to apply their capabilities to specific tasks. Because barriers to entry remain low and learning curves are accelerating, those who integrate AI into daily workflows may gain meaningful professional advantages.

Continued Learning

For those seeking further insight into the long-term implications of artificial intelligence for business and investing, Robert Smith’s keynote address from our recent annual Wealth Summit provides additional perspective. In the session below, he discusses the strategic direction of AI, responsible enterprise adoption, and the implications for sustained value creation. His remarks offer a broader contextual framework for understanding the forces shaping the future of markets and technology.

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Operational Intelligence refers to Vista’s longstanding practice of pursuing operational excellence in its investments, including through Vista’s best practices and the use of Vista’s Value Creation Team. This Presentation includes pro forma information related to certain investment transactions that are subject to signed definitive agreements but have not yet closed. Such transactions are subject to regulatory and other customary closing conditions, and consequently there can be no assurance that such transactions will be consummated on the terms currently contemplated or at all. This Presentation includes pro forma non-performance return related metrics through 11/01/2025.

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Statements contained in this Presentation (including those relating to current and future market conditions and trends in respect thereof) that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and/or beliefs of Vista. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. In addition, no representation or warranty is made with respect to the reasonableness of any estimates, forecasts, illustrations, prospects or returns, which should be regarded as illustrative only, or that any profits will be realized. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue”, “target” or “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to those set forth in the risk factor section of the applicable Memorandum, actual events or results or actual performance of any Fund may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, investors should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making their investment decisions. No representation or warranty is made as to future performance or such forward-looking statements. Statements other than of historical facts, including but not limited to those concerning market conditions, trends, consumer or customer preferences or other concepts, reflect the beliefs of Vista or, when applicable, of one or more Vista Fund portfolio companies or third-party sources.

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Investment objectives, strategies, policies and senior management may change over time or at any time, with or without prior notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and there can be no guarantee that any historical trends will continue over the life of any Vista Fund.

The comparables provided herein were selected by Vista for illustrative purposes because Vista believes that they present direct comparables within the relevant time period. Selection of such criteria is inherently subjective, and others might select other comparables based on their assessment of the market. Actual results may differ, perhaps materially from the estimates presented herein.

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The projections included in this Presentation have been prepared and are set out for illustrative purposes only, and do not constitute forecasts. They have been prepared based on Vista’s current view in relation to future events and various assumptions and estimations, including estimations and assumptions with respect to events that have not occurred, any of which may prove incorrect. Actual results may differ materially from projects and there can be no assurance that any historical trends will continue during the life of any Vista Fund.

Historical portfolio company sales and EBITDA figures presented in these materials may be reflected on a pro forma basis for material add-on acquisitions and divestitures, and other significant transactions, if applicable. Additionally, amounts contained in these materials are generally unaudited and may be flash or preliminary amounts reported by portfolio company management. Portfolio company EBITDA reported to Vista may be adjusted for purposes of determining the estimated fair value of such portfolio company in accordance with Vista’s valuation policy. Sales and EBITDA figures discussed in these materials with respect to companies pre-acquisition are believed to be from reliable sources, but Vista does not attest to their accuracy.

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Case studies and other descriptions of specific investments presented herein are for informational purposes only and are intended to illustrate Vista’s sourcing experience and the profile and types of investments previously pursued by Vista. It should not be assumed that investments made in the future will be comparable in quality or performance to the investments described herein. Further, references to specific investments included herein should not be construed as a recommendation of any particular investment or security. The investments listed should not be assumed to have been profitable. Past performance is not an indication of future results. The metrics regarding select aspects of the company’s operations were selected by Vista on a subjective basis. Such metrics are provided solely for illustrative purposes to demonstrate elements of the company’s business, are incomplete, and are not necessarily indicative of the company’s performance or overall operations. There can be no assurance that historical trends will continue throughout the life of the Fund.

The private equity benchmark statistics provided herein reflect the investment performance of collections of U.S. private equity funds and U.S. mezzanine funds selected by, among others, Preqin Ltd. and PitchBook Data, Inc. (collectively, the “PE Benchmarks”). The returns of the funds included in the PE Benchmarks are net of all applicable fees, expenses and carried interest. The public equity benchmarks (“Public Benchmarks”) provided herein include the Nasdaq Composite (the “Nasdaq Composite”), NASDAQ-100 Index (the “NASDAQ-100”), the Russell 3000 Index (the “Russell 3000”), the Russell 1000 Index (the “Russell 1000”), the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (the “S&P 400”), and the S&P 500 Index (the “S&P 500”) which includes dividends calculated monthly. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, it is one of the three most-followed stock market indices in the United States. The composition of the NASDAQ Composite is heavily weighted toward companies in the information technology sector. The NASDAQ-100 includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial securities listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The NASDAQ-100 reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. The NASDAQ-100 does not contain securities of financial companies including investment companies. The Russell 3000 encompasses the 3,000 largest U.S.-traded stocks, in which the underlying companies are incorporated in the U.S. The Russell 1000 encompasses the 1,000 largest companies in the U.S. equity market. The Russell 1000 is a subset of the Russell 3000. The S & 400 is a well-known stock market index that measures the performance of mid-sized companies, assuming reinvestment of dividends. The S&P 500 sets forth the performance of a well-known broad-based stock market index, assuming reinvestment of dividends. This index contains only seasoned equity securities. Investors generally cannot invest directly in the PE Benchmarks or the Public Benchmarks (together, the “Benchmarks”), each of which is presented for reference purposes only. The statistical data regarding the Benchmarks has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Vista intends to pursue, and the Vista Funds have pursued, a private equity strategy (for the Vista Equity Funds) or a credit strategy (for the Vista Credit Funds), in each case focused on software companies, although Vista may also make, and the Vista Funds have made, investments outside of these respective strategies from time to time. The Vista Funds likely will not pursue other strategies followed by some or all of the funds included in the Benchmarks, nor will Vista, nor the Vista Funds, invest in the funds or other securities comprising the Benchmarks. In addition, the funds comprising the PE Benchmarks invested across a variety of industries whereas Vista intends to focus, and the Vista Funds have focused, on software companies. In addition, an investment in any Vista Fund generally is subject to expenses, management fees and carried interest or incentive allocation charged or payable by the applicable Vista Fund, none of which are reflected in the Public Benchmarks. For the foregoing and other reasons, the returns achieved by the Vista Funds and the returns of the Benchmarks should not be considered comparable.

Third-party logos, including third-party private equity sponsors and other companies, included herein are provided for illustrative purposes only. Inclusion of such logos does not imply affiliation with or endorsement by such firms or businesses. There is no guarantee that Vista or its portfolio companies will work with any of the firms or businesses whose logos are included herein in the future.

There is no guarantee that Vista will successfully implement and make investments in companies that create positive sustainability impact while enhancing long-term shareholder value and achieving financial returns. To the extent that Vista engages with companies on sustainability practices and potential enhancements thereto, such engagements may not achieve the desired financial and social results, or the market or society may not view any such changes as desirable.

  • The limited partnership interests (“Interests”) in the Fund are being offered as a private placement to a limited number of sophisticated investors and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the rules and regulations promulgated thereunder (the “Securities Act”), or the securities laws of any U.S. state or non-U.S. jurisdiction and may not be sold or transferred without compliance with all applicable U.S. federal and state and non-U.S. securities laws.
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  • Although the use of leverage may enhance returns and increase the number of investments that can be made, it also has the potential to substantially increase the risk of loss of principal. The Fund reserves the right to leverage its investments with debt financing at the fund and/or portfolio investment level, including through debt financing. Although the use of leverage may enhance returns and increase the number of investments that can be made by the Fund, it may also substantially increase the risk of loss. The General Partner may be required to call additional capital, use the proceeds distributed from the Fund or otherwise reduce the Fund’s outstanding leverage. Furthermore, the lenders may have rights to enforce remedies against investors in the Fund who default in payment of capital calls. In addition, investors in the Fund may be obligated to subordinate any rights or claims they have against the Fund to the rights and claims of lenders.
  • The private equity industry generally and the success of the Fund’s investment activities will be affected by general economic and market conditions. Instability in the securities markets and economic conditions generally (including a slow-down in economic growth and/or changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates) may also increase the risks inherent in the Fund’s investments and could have a negative impact on the performance and/or valuation of the Fund’s portfolio companies.
  • The Fund’s investments will be concentrated in the software sector. Concentration in a single industry may involve risks greater than those generally associated with diversified investment funds, including significant fluctuations in returns. The software industry is challenged by various factors, including rapidly changing market conditions and/or participants, new competing products, changing consumer preferences, short product life cycles, services and/or improvements in existing products. Instability, fluctuation or an overall decline within the software industry will likely not be balanced by investments in other industries not so affected. In the event that the software sector as a whole declines, returns to Limited Partners may decrease.

THE FOREGOING LIST OF RISK FACTORS DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE A COMPLETE ENUMERATION OR EXPLANATION OF THE RISKS INVOLVED IN AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUND. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS SHOULD READ THE ENTIRE MEMORANDUM, INCLUDING THE “RISK FACTORS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST” SECTION SET FORTH THEREIN, AND CONSULT WITH THEIR OWN LEGAL, TAX AND FINANCIAL ADVISORS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST.